Metodologie Statistiche per i Futures Studies e il Foresight Strategico
(Statistical Methodologies for Futures Studies and Strategic Foresight)

Group Coordinator:

Simone di Zio, University of Chieti-Pescara

Board Members:

Corrado Crocetta (vice-Coordinator), University of Bari
Matilde Bini, European University of Rome
Mario Bolzan, University of Padua
Enrico Di Bella, University of Genoa
Angela Maria D'Uggento, University of Bari
Maria Gabriella Grassia, University of Naples "Federico II"

Group Scientific Aims

FutureSis group aims to promote and coordinate statistical research, both methodological and applied, in the field of Future Studies and Strategic Foresight. Given its topic, FutureSis has a multidisciplinary and international character, relevant elements on which the idea of promoting the encounter between qualitative and quantitative approaches is based.

FutureSis fosters cooperation and synergies among statisticians, social sciences researchers, policy-makers and government agencies by promoting participation in international projects, workshops and conferences and by collaborating with other scientific societies. Furthermore, it aims to promote relationships with national and international bodies and associations dealing with Future Studies.

At every level (individuals, families, enterprises, governments) one cannot longer “navigate by sight”: decisions must be made taking into account short-, medium- and long-term future scenarios, so as to devise specific “compasses” to sail out into the uncertainty. It is no coincidence that in many governments and international organizations have been established commissions for Strategic Foresight, meant as application of Future Studies methodologies in the corporate sphere, both public and private, in order to support strategic decisions.

In 2020, the European Commission appointed the first commissioner for Strategic Foresight (vice-President Maroš Šefčovič) in order to steer EU’s strategic choices and adopt policies appropriate to the challenges of the future (in social, economic, geopolitical, green and digital sphere). Greece, Finland and Singapore, for instance, have long since established within their governments experts groups in Future Studies. Since 2012, UNESCO has been conducting a global project of Future Literacy dissemination, deemed a key factor for sustainability.

While always dealing with forecasting, Statistics has been less involved in the foresight side. Future Studies need quali-quantitative data among which the expertise (meant as qualified and, whenever possible, certified subjective data), correctly used, has a new and crucial role, not replacing the other data but supplementing them, in order to enhance the possibilities of creating information. In this integration process, Statistics becomes essential.

In the field of Future Studies, Statistics specific tools prove a new usefulness, as they have enormous potential to describe the present, establish routes towards the future and draw up future scenarios.

In every sector of society (families, youth, enterprises, local authorities, national governments and supranational organizations) there is a need to properly steer the future. In this respect, statisticians are called not only to foresee the future, but to anticipate futures and develop future scenarios, so as to prepare for them and avoid dystopian ones and foster desirable ones.

Therefore, Statistics has what it takes to enter Future Studies as it can contribute in every step of the scenario and/or strategy building process. These qualifying contributions are for the benefit of all, including end users, more and more relevant and demanding.

It is only a matter of setting up a proper scientific dialogue with other disciplines (e.g. sociology, IT and even art) in order to build synergies. It is necessary to join forces to face new challenges: dealing with huge amounts of data, of very different kind, in order to manage the complexity, implicit in any exercise of Strategic Foresight.

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